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Trump Could Do It’: A Political Gambler Predicts Iowa
How Palin changed the game, Jeb's still overvalued, and other revelations from a professional political better.
Paul Krishnamurty is a British professional political gambler currently touring America to watch the primaries firsthand—and to bet on the election. He’s reporting regularly for Politico on how the gambling markets see the race—who’s up, who’s down, and where the smart money is moving.
1. Could Trump really win Iowa?
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The one big message that the markets are delivering right now: Trump could win Iowa. And that has a lot to do with Sarah Palin, who from the market’s perspective, has given us an earth-shattering, game-changing event.
Here are the numbers: On the morning of the Palin endorsement, the political betting markets had Cruz at 62 percent likely to win Iowa and 19 percent to win the nomination, and Trump at 32 percent to win Iowa and 24 percent to win the nomination.
After Palin’s endorsement, Trump skyrocketed, and he’s now around 60 percent likely to win Iowa, and 46 percent for the nomination. Cruz, meanwhile, has dropped to 40 percent for Iowa and 11 percent for the nomination. You can dismiss Trump all you want, as I have before when I thought he would be exposed for his lack of conservatism. But I’m now quite convinced that he could win.
Maybe it’s all about celebrity after all. While Cruz’s poll numbers stabilized after enjoying a surge this month, Trump’s have gone up. And while Cruz’s people keep hammering Trump on supporting liberal positions, it doesn’t seem like it’s sticking, at least not at this stage.
Still, part of my skepticism about Trump is that his voters may not turn out on a freezing cold Tuesday night to caucus in Iowa. I’m very skeptical.
That said, this is about predicting the market, no necessarily the election, and in hindsight, I wish I’d sold more of Cruz a month ago. I was so confident until Palin got involved.
4. Who’s underrated?
In Iowa at least, the dark horse is Rubio. There, the markets have him at a bit less than 5 percent chance. But Rubio has just been endorsed by the Des Moines Register, and it’s very possible that enough mainstream voters edge the other two out—Trump and Cruz. It’s possible that Trump and Cruz both get 25 percent. In that case, Rubio could win, possibly on 35 percent support. This is a big test for Rubio: For all the hype, for all the money he has, he hasn’t broken through anywhere.
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Read the full article at the link above. The above is abridged and adjusted
Fair use notice: This website contains copyrighted material, the use of which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Excerpts of such material is made available for educational purposes, and as such this constitutes ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Act. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this website is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. Original material published on this website may be excerpted and the excerpt reproduced for the purpose of critical reviews. However, such original material may not be reproduced in full on another website or in any manner without prior approval from this website’s owner. In all cases when material from this website is reproduced in full or in part, the author and website must be credited by name and a hyperlink provided to this website
