Monday, February 29, 2016

Gov.Palin 6th In Ladbrokes Odds As Trump's VP (But In Reality In 3rd Place)

The famous betting house Ladbrokes is the currently the only betting establishment which is placing odds in the GOP's vice-presidential nominee category.

In the "Top Ten" placing Governor Christie is now number 1, no doubt due to the massive publicity following on from his endorsement of Donald Trump.



It seems logical that since Trump is far ahead in the betting stakes as the GOP's next nominee the VP listing would reflect that. If Rubio were in Trump's leading place no doubt the "Top Ten" would have significantly different standings and a different cast of characters, I doubt if Christie would be placed first for example (Unless he had endorsed Rubio of course).

Under the circumstances Governor Palin is well placed in 6th, always bearing in mind that these standings reflect real (as opposed to pundits many of whom don't fall into that category) people placing their own money down so one would imagine a large degree of personal bias and expectations don't figure in their choices.

Not being a betting man and, admittedly, encumbered by bias but with, hopefully, a large degree of detachment when considering such matters I would without hesitation refine the standings. I note that Ladbrokes does not even consider Senator Cruz worthy of any odds in the Top ten which seems more than reasonable

Christie is too much like Trump and there would be little contrast. If, as seem likely, Hillary is the Dem's nominee having two hard nosed, pugnacious people on the opposing ticket would the the GOP open to "War on Women" written large, in fact extremely large. Further, a New York New Jersey ticket (with admittedly little chance of both states being won ) adds nothing in respect of the vital Electoral College considerations. Christie can be scratched.

Kasich, absolutely. Ohio is a vital state and Kasich, although encumbered by being a male and also feisty might tip the balance there.

Rubio, not  a chance. Trump "I never considered him and after his attacks I never will". That pretty much ends that.

Nikki Haley. Endorsed Rubio against Trump in South Carolina, campaigned hard for Rubio and begrudgingly now said she would vote for Trump if he is the nominee. South Carolina brings nothing to the Electoral College that wasn't there. 

If Palin has any say in the matter, which is not beyond imagining given her close relationship with Trump, Haley advising " I don't owe Palin anything after Palin's endorsement made her governor, seems to preclude Nikki.

Mike Huckabee. Yes, most certainly. Although also encumbered by being a man Huckabee is viewed as a non-threatening to women courtly southern Baptist preacher. Arkansas might be on the Clinton's attack list as that is where Bill hails from as does Huckabee. Well, spoken amiable, knowledgeable and a former long serving governor there is a lot to be said for his chances (if he wants the nod).

Sarah Palin. Long term confidant of Trump. Endorsed Trump at an absolutely crucial time just before the Iowa caucus which kept Trump from finishing below Rubio and gave his campaign impetus to New Hampshire as well as bringing Trump her legions of supporters and assuaging conservatives and Evangelicals doubts.

Thus if we revise the standings based on political reality they are;

1.Kasich

2.Huckabee

3.Palin

There is a poll now open "Who Would be Trump's Vice-President?" with a much wider, and perhaps more realistic list of candidates at THIS LINK


NB The Ladbrokes odds based  as a percentage are 29%/25%20%14%/9%/8%/6%/6%/5%/5%

NNB. I would be confident one could scratch Fiorina/Romney/Ryan from the possibly partners for a Trump headed ticket.


Governor Palin Returns To The Fray After Todd's Iron Dog "On Sen. Sessions endorsement of Trump: "America Thanks You!"



Sarah Palin

Bold, smart, respected, conservative Senate icon endorses Donald Trump with enthusiastic proclamation:
"This isn't a campaign, this is a movement!" - Sen. Jeff Sessions
(Thank you for hosting Trump and me in your office at our Anti-Iranian Nuke Rally, Sen. Sessions. Your leadership in the pro-American Security/pro-Israel movement is unsurpassed, as is your pro-legal immigration/anti-criminal border crossings effort. America thanks you!)
- Sarah Palin

This Donald Trump video “The Snake” is going viral in Europe

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Media Speculation Of Gov.Palin As Trump's VP Abounds- Ten Latest Articles.

Clearly some sections of the media have finally woken from their slumber or have had the scales fall from their eyes and are admitting that Donald Trump not only stands a great chance of being the GOP's nominee but elected president in November.

There could be no clearer indication of this than the speculation, Google Trump's vice-president and over 3000 articles are linked, as to who his VP choice might be cropping up regularly now. Of course being the leftist leaning media the articles often contain the usual elitism, especially if Governor Palin is mentioned but the fact that she is, and prominently so, proves that all the meme's about "she is irrelevant and etc. are just nonsense. 

Such dismissal was blown away, yet again, when Governor Palin's endorsement of Trump proved to be a game changer both for Trump and Cruz.

There is a voting site up at;
 "Who Might be Donald Trump's
Vice-President"
where the public can have their say as well as the "all knowing pundits" (who have utterly failed this political season.)



Here are some media speculation articles on Trump's VP choice.




NEWSMAX

10 VP Picks Donald Trump Is Likely to Consider

Sarah Palin — Trump tapped the former Alaska governor and fellow reality television star to stump for him ahead of the Iowa caucus, and the event was well-covered by the media. While the pair might seem like a good match, Palin and Trump's constituencies may overlap too much. She might not widen Trump's circle of influence as much as others on the VP shortlist. After resigning her post as governor, it is also unclear if Palin is interested in holding elected office. 


CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR (with  "pundit" snark)


Sarah Palin is a name that springs to mind, someone equally at odds with the establishment, controversial, outspoken. And she has already endorsed Trump, something the business mogul seemed to relish back in Iowa.
Yet if Donald Trump is seeking someone to balance his image, to appeal to sectors of the population who may not be quite so enamored by his rhetoric, then Ms. Palin may not be the wisest choice.
“Trump is smart enough to make moves to win, and picking Sarah Palin would be an absolute mistake,” says Skelley. “She doesn’t bring much gravitas as a number two pick. For a time, she was a huge star among conservatives, but then she resigned her governorship to make more money on TV, something that didn’t sit too well with the Republican Party.”


EPOCH TIMES



POLICY.MIC

Trump Pick as His Vice Presidential Running Mate?

Does that mean it won't be former Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin? She is both TV celeb and politician, and when she joined him onstage in January at a rally in Iowa, throwing her weighty endorsement behind him, she catalyzed the evangelical contingent and brought with her tea party enthusiasts, a contingent Trump would certainly want in his court. 
Donald Trump VP Nominee: Who Would Trump Pick as His Vice Presidential Running Mate?

CBS BOSTON

Keller @ Large: Ridiculous Speculation About Donald Trump’s Running Mate


Donald Trump and Sarah Palin January 19, 2016 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images)

Also mentioned: 2008 GOP vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin.



The Fix  WASHINGTON POST Chris Cillizza

It’s time to start speculating about Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick


Sarah Palin: Stay with me.... Trump loves nothing more than sticking it to the GOP political class and the media punditry. And which candidate in recent years is more disliked by those two groups than the former governor of Alaska? Answer: no one. Palin's populism is not all that dissimilar to what Trump is pitching in this election. Picking Palin is, um, not without risk. But Trump loves risks.

WHIO

Donald Trump's running mate: Who might he choose?

Sarah Palin: The former Alaskan governor and running mate to Sen. John McCain in 2008, endorsed Trump in January. Would she upstage Trump if she were vice president? He seemed to think she might during her endorsement announcement.    


ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM 

"Sarah Palin: Pundits and Democrats wouldn't jump for joy with her on the ticket (again), but she has a lot of devoted followers. Her brand of populism fits perfectly with his. OK, she might say something stupid or repulsive, but Trump does that all the time and it doesn't seem to hurt, so why not double down on stupid and repulsive?

EXAMINER

"The other folks that the Washington Post predicts will be on Trump's shortlist for Vice President are, "South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Carly Fiorina or a random businessman. People just couldn't warm up to Carly Fiorina during her presidential bid, but she does bring a lot to the table that a president can utilize with her knowledge of the Internet and the technology needed to bring the country up to date!
Although Sarah Palin came out and endorsed Trump early on, she went way overboard with her enthusiasm, almost to the point where she looked like a loose canon. Trump seems to have distanced himself from her since she whooped it up on stage with her endorsement.

Palin speculation is not confined to vice-president, 
Energy Secretary is also in the mix

Trump Cabinet auditions: Progressive Energy Secretary Sarah Palin?


 FOX OPINION NAMES TRUMP'S ENTIRE CABINET
INCLUDING

Energy: Sarah Palin (who else? Drill baby, drill)

And Interior Secretary


Friday, February 26, 2016

Video's;Gov.Palin's Campaign Appearances With Trump & His ShoutOuts To Her Texas/Alabama



Donald Trump's Shout Out To Governor Palin

Madison, AL (2-28-16)



1.Donald Trump's Rally in Fort Worth,2-26- 16"

We've had incredible support from Sarah Palin she's a great person" Remark at 1;41

2.Donald Trump Introduces Governor Palin as she endorses him before the Iowa caucuses 01/19/16

3. Donald Trump introduces Governor Palin in Tulsa Oklahoma
01/20/16

Palin's Trump Endorsement Ends Cruz's Texas Campaign Just As She Made It Possible?



"Ted Cruz at CPAC: I Would Not Be in Senate Without Sarah Palin"BREITBART

From Senator' Cruz's own mouth, he would not be a senator were it not for Palin's endorsement at a crucial point in his campaign, and of course he would not now be a presidential candidate without her impetus.
From Cruz's interview with Kevin Scholla as reported by US4Palin




Here is remarkable polling history for Cruz.

January 2011 Dewhurst 23% Cruz 3% (Dewhurst +20)

PALIN ENDORSES CRUZ MAY 10th; CRUZ CAMPAIGN REPORTS MASSIVE INTEREST

Post PALIN endorsement poll May 21st

Democrat Pollster PPP Polling (D)  on May 24th
Dewhurst 46%  Cruz 29%  (Dewhurst +17)
PPP also found this result;

"Even though Rick Perry's candidate is likely to defeat Sarah Palin's, her endorsement polls much more positively. 36% of voters say they're more inclined to back a Palin supported candidate to 21% who consider it a negative.

Subsequent to Sarah Palin's endorsement of him, GOP candidate for senator from Texas Ted Cruz has completed the astonishing journey from polling at only 3% to being in the final run-off. Cruz having kept the previously presumed winner Dewhurst below 50% in tonight's primary battle.

PRIMARY RESULT MAY 29th



 92% reportingTed Cruz

445,483   33.60%
David Dewhurst


593,86544.79%
Palin TV support

Final Result

It is clear beyond any doubt that Cruz owed his election to Palin's endorsement as do so many others e.g. Haley/Sasse/Fischer et al. Further Palin's endorsement at an absolute crucial time in Donald Trump's campaign very likely made the difference between his second place in Iowa and possible oblivion behind Cruz and Rubio there see "Palin's Endorsement  Saved Trump's Campaign For New Hampshire."

If Cruz gets less than 50%+1 of the vote in Texas on Super Tuesday then the delegates are apportioned and with Trump running from-15 to a draw in current polling that result seems likely. So at best Cruz would come out of Texas with a small delegate lead from the state whilst Trump is on the path to garner huge delegate wins across all the other states on the day.

If however Trump can get to 50% because of Palin's endorsement in Texas he would likely knock Cruz out of the campaign. Palin has been tied up with her husband Todd's Iron Dog race in Alaska which means much to them both but if the call came to be on the ground I would be confident she would respond, such is her nature.

It may be that the Trump team see a Cruz still active but rendered ineffectual an asset to keep alive in the campaign to split the vote with Rubio until Florida where Rubio looks like losing to Trump. But such matters are for the campaign to decide. 


What is certain is that if Palin were called upon and made the difference between Cruz finishing first or second it would be beyond ironic and would be a testament to her enormous power. She endorsed Cruz and made him a senator, she endorsed Trump (Cruz; “Sarah Palin picks winners,") and could help make him a president whilst keeping Cruz in the senate.

Some commentary;
Could Cruz Suffer The Unkindest Cut Of All - Losing Texas?...
"I was stunned in talking to longtime Texas political watchers and insiders, not aligned with any candidate, that they were not in the least dismissive of the notion Cruz could lose there. Essentially, they told me it is quite possible that the tea party darling will be rejected by his own constituents. There is certainly a substantial risk that will occur. Moreover, Cruz’s campaign has said he has to not only win, but also win big there.
[..] Cruz, to be candid, has never really had a competitive race at home against a skilled conservative. In his only political race, his Senate run in 2012, Cruz got lucky in drawing Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, a milquetoast establishment figure, as an opponent. (One Texas wit calls Dewhurst a “a wine-swilling country club Republican who had a terrible relationship with tea party folks.”)
[...] Many, if not most Texas political observers, think that without a delayed primary, Cruz never would have made it. In any event, he was the sole tea party candidate and was therefore able to get backing from national figures such as Sarah Palin (now on Trump’s team) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who is not about to endorse him this time. Cruz did not have to beat in the runoff another solid conservative or someone more in tune with the grass-roots than he."

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Governor Palin On Donald Trump's Nevada Triumph





Trump Smashes Records, Again; Democrat Turnout Declines, Again; Media Ignores the Reason, Again
Hat trick! Three in a row with a "yuuuge" Trump victory in Nevada last night. The#TrumpTrain rolls on, full steam ahead to Super Tuesday.
To all GOP beltway bellyachers crying (literally) this marks the "end of the GOP" or the people’s vote for Trump is "bad for democracy," how about you try something new this morning: use your noggin and examine the facts.
The fact is, Trump’s independence, commonsense conservatism, experience, success, and refreshing candidness attracts voters. But most significantly, his message INSPIRES AMERICANS! We CAN win again! Trump’s building a new, broad coalition – bringing the GOP new, hardworking patriots who love America as much as he does. This is how he wins this fall.
– In the four states already voting (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada) each saw a record GOP turnout, smashing previous records.
– Nevada was so big, it’s record-setting number equaled that of 2008 and 2012 turnouts COMBINED! Meanwhile, turnout for the democrat caucus declined by 33% – yikes! http://thehill.com/…/270555-gop-race-drives-record-turnout-…
– GOP turnout in South Carolina DOUBLED that of 2008, and grew another 130,000 new voters in 2016. Any bets on what happens Saturday when it’s the democrats’ turn? http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/south-carolina-…/…/2583786
– Records broke in New Hampshire; again the GOP trajectory UP, democrats DOWN. Liberals lost thousands in their hot contest.http://www.npr.org/…/new-hampshire-turnout-breaks-records-b…
– Iowa GOP caucus ranks grew by 60,000. On the other side? A strange, tight race was decided by only 0.3%…? Dems lost voters.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/…/caucus-turnout…/79626128/
Wake up, Old Establishment. You’re the last to open your eyes to what is happening in this country. Donald Trump has awakened the electorate and exposed the self-serving political machine in a way no other could.
The rest of us welcome new voters into what you’ve claimed to want – the "big tent" – even as you practice your disparaging elitism, trying to discourage us all. Your true colors show.
As I said in Iowa, you don’t care WHO wins elections as long as you keep your perks, crony capital favors, and inner-circle money-centric power. This is merely a BUSINESS for you. You’re in it for a season, not a reason.
So obvious is your agenda, trying to destroy anyone who’d go rogue and not get sucked into your schemes, that when we find the candidate in the perfect position to bust up your cabal, you’ve gone into overdrive.
Meanwhile we’ll keep on winning, and encouraging all these new voters to bring family and friends along!
What is happening that the Permanent Political Class can’t see? For our solvency and sovereignty, lovers of America knew the status quo had to go. We knew we needed a revolution. We found a revolutionary.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

A Gracious And Loyal Donald Trump Thanks Governor Palin After South Carolina Victory





What sharp contrast Donald Trump is to the likes of Governor  (I don't owe Palin anything"Haley and Senator's Cruz, Sasse and all the others who would not be holding office if it were not for Palin's support who then turned around and stabbed her in the back.


Trump's ties with Governor Palin go back many years and he is clearly appreciative and fond of her. He was rewarded for his sincerity by her endorsement at an absolutely crucial time in his campaign as i set out in this article. I look forwards to Governor Palin's further contributions.


GOVERNOR PALIN'S ENDORSEMENT SAVED DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN



Endorsements are usually worth a bucket of warm saliva-Palin said as much when asked about her endorsement of Donald Trump "I don't think endorsements mean all that much she advised "reflecting on the Iowa result.

Hers was, however an exception. If she hadn't endorsed Trump he would have finished behind Rubio (who he finished only 1.3 points ahead of) and his campaign would be in serious jeopardy. I don't think she cost him a vote and if she gave him 1% (Rasmussen showed her endorsement was a net positive) that 1% may just have made the difference between going to NH in a good position and being written off by all the media with no momentum at all going into the crucial next  primary.


Commentator Michael JN Thompson wrote "It is clear that Palin saved Trump from losing by double digits in Iowa. He wouldn't have broke 20% that's for sure. In terms of the Governor’s impact, Trump won West Iowa, the region where the Governor has been the strongest and where Steve King’s congressional district in Iowa is located."

Just after Palin endorsed Trump Nicolle Wallace in The New York Times summed it up in one sentence "(Donald Trump)  Should he come out on top in Iowa, he has her to thank."
Trump as it turned out clung to second place by 1.3 points over Rubio so the reality is Trump has Palin to thank, not for the win but for saving his campaign but for his placing second and having only one less caucus vote than Cruz.

The Washington Post gives confirmation from an unimpeachable source-the Cruz camp;


"There were signs that the right was not united behind Cruz. Former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin, a tea party and evangelical heroine, endorsed Trump at a splashy rally in Ames.The nightly surveys conducted by the Cruz campaign showed that Palin was a boon for Trump — 67 percent of Iowa Republicans had heard of her endorsement, and of them, 19 percent were more likely to support Trump. Only 13 percent were less likely to."

This net 6 point positive differential is exactly the same as Rasmussen found in an analysis prior to the vote;

"RASMUSSEN;"Net 6% of Iowa voters say Palin's endorsement helps Trump"
For Iowa Republicans conservative voters particular, a Palin endorsement is a plus" 59% of Republicans, hold a favorable view of Palin This includes 25% with a Very Favorable view"
Net 11% of conservative Iowa voters believe Palin's endorsement of Trump will help him."

And, putting the lie to the MSM meme that Palin 

is "unpopular"Rasmussen 


further found "Fifty-nine percent (59%) of 


Republican voters say former 


Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shares the values 


of most GOP voters 


throughout the nation.

The effect of Palin's 
endorsement was dramatically illustrated, by of all people the "Morning Joe" consultant who produced a graph of the effect of her endorsement on the betting markets. The rise from Trump being behind to a sharp increase ahead is dramatic-and these are people who put their own money on the line.



The effect of Palin's endorsement amongst Iowa women was immediate and dramatic;a 20% increase and amongst Tea Party Supporters a striking 33% increase



These two graphs from Real Clear Politics show the aggregate "Poll of Polls" results for the various candidates. On January 19th the date of Palin's speech in Iowa Trump and Cruz were within one point of each other. On January 26th when the full effect of the endorsement was felt Trump had a near six point lead.





That Trump lost by only three points can be considered remarkable. He hardly used Palin on the ground to supplement what turned out to be a weak get out the vote effort (she campaigned for him in Tulsa which in retrospect seem a wasted effort) and her election day efforts were mostly tied up with national media rather than the retail campaigning at which she is so adept. 

I reviewed what went wrong with Trump's campaign "Lessons learned" but not using Palin to full advantage can certainly be added to the list.

After Palin's endorsement there were over 10,000 articles across the media 99% of which were negative to hateful. Only, in a round about way, did Nicolle Wallace and Rasmussen get it right as did the Washington Post after the election.

Apart from the Post there is not a word of acknowledgement of Palins' contribution just continued denigration. That the Trump team might ignore the media onslaught and use Palin to the fullest extent possible in South Carolina (whose Governor, Nikki Haley owed her election to Palin and is now supporting Rubio) seems good advice.

That Trump is still a credible force in New Hampshire, rather than limping in after a distant third finish in Iowa, should reinforce the debt his team owes to Palin****and hopefully concentrates their minds about the vital role of good old fashion meet the folks retail campaigning.

If Trump soldiers on to the nomination the power of Palin with the great mass of ordinary folks across America, despite the most vicious efforts of a rabid media and Establishment (whose force Trump has now experienced) must surely commend her as running mate.


****

Hmm got 15,000 more votes than Iowa winner Rick Santorum and 500 more than Iowa winner Mike Huckabee

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