Monday, February 29, 2016

Gov.Palin 6th In Ladbrokes Odds As Trump's VP (But In Reality In 3rd Place)

The famous betting house Ladbrokes is the currently the only betting establishment which is placing odds in the GOP's vice-presidential nominee category.

In the "Top Ten" placing Governor Christie is now number 1, no doubt due to the massive publicity following on from his endorsement of Donald Trump.



It seems logical that since Trump is far ahead in the betting stakes as the GOP's next nominee the VP listing would reflect that. If Rubio were in Trump's leading place no doubt the "Top Ten" would have significantly different standings and a different cast of characters, I doubt if Christie would be placed first for example (Unless he had endorsed Rubio of course).

Under the circumstances Governor Palin is well placed in 6th, always bearing in mind that these standings reflect real (as opposed to pundits many of whom don't fall into that category) people placing their own money down so one would imagine a large degree of personal bias and expectations don't figure in their choices.

Not being a betting man and, admittedly, encumbered by bias but with, hopefully, a large degree of detachment when considering such matters I would without hesitation refine the standings. I note that Ladbrokes does not even consider Senator Cruz worthy of any odds in the Top ten which seems more than reasonable

Christie is too much like Trump and there would be little contrast. If, as seem likely, Hillary is the Dem's nominee having two hard nosed, pugnacious people on the opposing ticket would the the GOP open to "War on Women" written large, in fact extremely large. Further, a New York New Jersey ticket (with admittedly little chance of both states being won ) adds nothing in respect of the vital Electoral College considerations. Christie can be scratched.

Kasich, absolutely. Ohio is a vital state and Kasich, although encumbered by being a male and also feisty might tip the balance there.

Rubio, not  a chance. Trump "I never considered him and after his attacks I never will". That pretty much ends that.

Nikki Haley. Endorsed Rubio against Trump in South Carolina, campaigned hard for Rubio and begrudgingly now said she would vote for Trump if he is the nominee. South Carolina brings nothing to the Electoral College that wasn't there. 

If Palin has any say in the matter, which is not beyond imagining given her close relationship with Trump, Haley advising " I don't owe Palin anything after Palin's endorsement made her governor, seems to preclude Nikki.

Mike Huckabee. Yes, most certainly. Although also encumbered by being a man Huckabee is viewed as a non-threatening to women courtly southern Baptist preacher. Arkansas might be on the Clinton's attack list as that is where Bill hails from as does Huckabee. Well, spoken amiable, knowledgeable and a former long serving governor there is a lot to be said for his chances (if he wants the nod).

Sarah Palin. Long term confidant of Trump. Endorsed Trump at an absolutely crucial time just before the Iowa caucus which kept Trump from finishing below Rubio and gave his campaign impetus to New Hampshire as well as bringing Trump her legions of supporters and assuaging conservatives and Evangelicals doubts.

Thus if we revise the standings based on political reality they are;

1.Kasich

2.Huckabee

3.Palin

There is a poll now open "Who Would be Trump's Vice-President?" with a much wider, and perhaps more realistic list of candidates at THIS LINK


NB The Ladbrokes odds based  as a percentage are 29%/25%20%14%/9%/8%/6%/6%/5%/5%

NNB. I would be confident one could scratch Fiorina/Romney/Ryan from the possibly partners for a Trump headed ticket.


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