A Hispanic candidate is potentially a major plus, perhaps the deciding factor, to any GOP lineup as the 2016 vice-presidential candidate, and Electoral College ramifications seemingly dictate that New Mexico's Governor Susana Martinez has many advantages to a number of potential running mates for Donald Trump.
Recent events with Trump's relationship with the Hispanic community appearing to be sub-optimal to say the least dictates, surely, a close examination of the concept of having a Hispanic on the ticket. Trump's statements about Mexican illegals, building a massive wall "anchor babies" and his contretemps with Univisions Jorge Ramos need no expansion on.
Recent events with Trump's relationship with the Hispanic community appearing to be sub-optimal to say the least dictates, surely, a close examination of the concept of having a Hispanic on the ticket. Trump's statements about Mexican illegals, building a massive wall "anchor babies" and his contretemps with Univisions Jorge Ramos need no expansion on.
It is a near absolute that if the exit polls show (correctly unlike 2004) that Florida will be won by the Democratic party presidential candidate by about 9 p.m. on election night Republicans could turn off their TV's as the night will not turn out well for them-at least on the presidential level. Thus logic would seem to dictate that a person of Hispanic descent would be the GOP's best hope to keep the ticket alive further into the evening.
That would appear to be the case in point of fact. Mitt Romney lost Florida by the narrowest of margins, the closest in the country, just 0.88% (down from 2.82 in 2008). It would take just a small swing to flip it to the GOP in 2016 and an Hispanic VP candidate, particularly a woman if Hillary is the Dem's nominee, could well provide the required margin.
Given the close battle in Florida and President Obama's ability to increase the support in vital Ohio by 4% from Blacks that he received in 2008 it was perhaps surprising that his support among Black voters in Florida dropped a point from 96% to 95%.
What appears to have won the state for President Obama was the, again perhaps even more surprising, shift of Hispanic voters from 57% in 2008 to 60% for Obama in 2012. As can be clearly seen winning back those voters to the GOP is vital, and clearly an Hispanic would surely have an advantage in encompassing that challenge.
The problem for the GOP is that winning Florida is only the start of a path to the required 270 Electoral College votes, and the path is long, tortuous and extremely narrow. Presuming North Carolina has returned to the GOP's fold, and the narrow 2012 loss in Ohio is overcome the major stumbling block is the vital 13 votes of Virginia.
Once considered safe in the bosom of the "solid south" Virginia has seen an influx of Democratic voters into the northern region of the state, So substantial has this influx been that Virginia has been solid blue for the last two elections.
President G.W. Bush won Virginia by an 8.2 margin in 2004, in a massive reversal then Senator Obama won it by a 6.3 margin-52.63 to 46.33 in 2008 and held it comfortably by a 3.88 margin in 2012.It would be difficult to see how an Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for the GOP could have any material influence on the apparently substantial shifting demographics of Virginia or Iowa, another vital state for the GOP.
It is in the Rockies and Southwest that having a Hispanic candidate on the ticket becomes the vital factor if the key Eastern states and Iowa fall to the GOP (Iowa is not absolutely vital but losing it makes winning "pulling an inside straight" as James Carville stated was what John Kerry needed in almost exactly the same situation in 2004)
A study of the Electoral College map* shows that to get at or above the required 270 votes some combination of any two of Colorado/New Mexico/Nevada must be won.
Winning all three would more than compensate for the loss of Virginia and Iowa.
The question then becomes who would be the best VP choice from among Governors Governor Brian Sandoval of nevada, New Mexico's Susana Martinez or Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to encompass this?
Winning all three would more than compensate for the loss of Virginia and Iowa.
The question then becomes who would be the best VP choice from among Governors Governor Brian Sandoval of nevada, New Mexico's Susana Martinez or Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz to encompass this?
Both Sandoval and Martinez won their 2014 reelection to their respective governorship's handily. Martinez by a substantial margin and Governor Sandoval by a massive margin (with 70% of the vote) so they are both obviously very popular in their home states. Cruz may be too polarizing and it is doubtful if Rubio would be acceptable to the base.
The fact of being successful Governors at a time when the public is perhaps looking for just that experience instead of senators who have had no executive management record can be a plus above and beyond their Hispanic heritage as well.
The fact of being successful Governors at a time when the public is perhaps looking for just that experience instead of senators who have had no executive management record can be a plus above and beyond their Hispanic heritage as well.
Again, without Florida the GOP is doomed in 2016-with Florida but without either Nevada or New Mexico it is also doomed. All things being equal having a Hispanic on the GOP ticket appears to be the GOP's best hope, and Martinez appears to be the best Hispanic choice.
Martinez immediately blunts the anti-Hispanic "racist" anti-women charge and her popularity and experience as a governor would also add balance to the the ticket.
At the very least, with Whites expected to become a minority in the not to distant future with the Hispanic population doubling that of Blacks it is good politics.
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Martinez immediately blunts the anti-Hispanic "racist" anti-women charge and her popularity and experience as a governor would also add balance to the the ticket.
At the very least, with Whites expected to become a minority in the not to distant future with the Hispanic population doubling that of Blacks it is good politics.
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